What the stats really show about Swindon Town's start

“When I look at all of the metrics that we look at from an attacking team and a defensive team, all of our metrics are really high. In terms of final third entries, touches in the box, crosses in the box, successful crosses, shots, passing, possession, our defensive actions, our corners – everything is really high.”

Kennedy has remained insistent that Swindon will get their rewards soon enough based on what he has seen and what the numbers are telling him. From a general eye test, the performances have been up and down but the head coach is right that there have been positives when you look at the stats.

Swindon's stats so far this season (Image: Newsquest)

In terms of attacking numbers, only three teams are averaging more successful crosses than Swindon in League Two so far and there is a general upward trend when looking at most attacking metrics as the weeks have gone on. Town’s xG has improved every league game and their open play xG has increased every game bar Crewe Alexandra, which does imply that they are getting better as the new-look squad becomes more accustomed to one another. They have also improved after a slow start in terms of shots, shots on target, and touches in the box.

The problem there is that while Swindon are improving, they are still a below-average League Two team for most of these metrics. The league average for xG per game is 1.04, Town have only exceeded that once, the average for shots is 11.2, Swindon have been above that twice in five games, and it is the same story across the board. Things are getting better, but they are improving from rates towards the bottom to closer to the middle.

The most damning stat is that Swindon are the only team in the league not to have generated a single big chance this season. A big chance is defined by Opta as: “A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.” Doncaster have already created 17 and Town have zero.

Swindon's average positions against Notts County (left) and Walsall (right) (Image: Sofascore)

One thing that has been notable looking at the available data comes from the average position charts. When looking at the games where Swindon have been able to attack effectively (Crawley Town and Notts County), their wing-backs have had an average position inside the opposition half. Swindon have consistently had a central attacking trio with one of the midfielders up by the strikers but the notable difference is where the wing-backs are. Against Crewe Alexandra, Walsall, and Chesterfield, both wing-backs had an average position inside Swindon’s half, but against Notts, Jeff King had the most advanced average position in Swindon’s whole team, against Crawley, King and Longelo were both in the League One side’s half, and at Barrow, King was ten yards into their half but less aggressive than he had been the previous weekend. There has been a direct correlation between the position of the wing-backs and Town’s attacking output.

Defensively there is more positivity to be had. Removing the 4-0 home mauling by Walsall, no team has created more than 0.75 xG against Swindon and no more than 0.5 open play xG, they have one of the lowest percentages of shots inside the box against, and the fourth lowest xG per shot against (meaning the average quality of chance they concede is very low). Also, the last two games have seen them concede fewer than ten touches in their box and they are in the top eight for both ground and aerial duel win rate.

As a whole, this has been a pretty strong defence that has given up some rather unfortunate goals, rather like David McGoldrick’s double. The eight goals they have conceded in five games do not seem to be a sign of a long-term problem.

The numbers looking at passing and possession show a slightly muddled team.  Swindon are third for accurate long balls but their accurate short passes have ranged between a number that would put them third and one that would put them 21st in the league. Kennedy has spoken about wanting to be adaptable but whilst they have generally trended towards having more accurate passes in a game, they are averaging well short of the true possession-based teams.

Overall, there is some truth in Kennedy’s belief that the stats show more than a 22nd-placed team. Defensively, they have performed far better than the league position would suggest and they are improving in attack but they are still at best a lower mid-table offensive threat.