STOCK market prospects for 2004 are looking more encouraging in all of the world's major share-trading centres, according to Salisbury financial industry specialist Bob Collom.
Mr Collom, from the Milford Street office of independent financial advisers Thomson's Group, the second biggest independent financial adviser in the UK, said there were favourable signs that the recovery in UK and American share prices in the second half of 2003 will remain on track.
Meanwhile, he said, the underlying causes of several poor years in Japan and Europe were at last being tackled by firm government on both continents, making both more attractive to investors than for some years.
"Historically, equities have always performed better in the longer term than banks and building societies, and other homes for investment money, and the next 12 months may well confirm that the upward swing in the world's stock markets is under way again," he said.
Mr Collom gave a country-by-country assessment of the year ahead: "Referring to the UK, as long as Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown does not dramatically increase government spending, there is no reason why the Stock Exchange shouldn't continue to recover.
"But with interest rates moving upwards for the first time for well over a year, it is worth remembering that a half per cent interest rate rise puts about 14 per cent on the cost of borrowing."
Turning to Europe, he said: "Governments are finally getting to grips with their social responsibility, and this should create a favourable climate for share prices. Germany, for example, is reducing its massive national state pensions bill, while Italy is attempting to deal with the pensions problem by saying its workforce must stay in employment for a minimum of 40 years."
As far as America is concerned, he said: "It could be argued that share prices, and thus companies, remain over-valued, but there is a demographic factor that comes into play here and maintains the attractions of transatlantic investment.
"American analysts point out that baby-boomers from the period 1945-1960 are making more money than ever before and saving a large proportion of it towards their retirement.
"This group is likely to continue to buy stocks and shares until around 2009-2013, when they will suddenly all have reached retirement age and start to draw out cash rather than invest it."
Turning to south east Asia, he said: "South east Asia is likely to continue to grow as it benefits most from its rapidly emerging neighbour China.
"And, as for Japan, this year could well be the one in which Japanese markets really begin to recover."
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