A HERCULES from RAF Lyneham, which crashed with the loss of all 10 people on board, was most likely shot down by a surface-to-air missile, according to a US think-tank.

Within hours of the accident Arab militant groups claimed responsibility for the crash purporting they had brought the aircraft down with an anti-tank missile.

But the think-tank, Stratfor, said it was aware of specialist teams of insurgents trained to use small shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles by former Iraqi air force officers.

Stratfor said: "Although the British Ministry of Defence is reluctant to confirm it, the RAF C-130 that went down was probably shot down by a MANPADS (man portable air defence system)."

It said that the nationalists probably have access to a cache of missiles, most likely the Soviet-designed SA-7, hidden since the coalition invasion in 2003.

"Stratfor has learned that such teams are operating in and around Baghdad, especially near Baghdad International Airport," it said.

Investigations by a specialist team are ongoing but the Ministry of Defence has said that any probe may take months to complete.

The Hercules crashed in the Iraqi desert north of Baghdad on Sunday, January 30 in clear weather.

Wreckage was scattered over a wide area.

The bodies of the 10 victims were repatriated at RAF Lyneham on Tuesday.