One in eight constituencies in Wiltshire and Swindon will remain conservative in the General Election, according to a new poll.

The MRP poll by More in Common suggests that Labour will take two and the Liberal Democrats will take one.

MRP stands for ‘multi-level regression and post-stratification’ and it uses statistical methods to work out a projected result at the constituency level based on national polling.

The Chippenham constituency is projected as a Conservative hold but by the incredibly small margin of 0.4 per cent of the vote.

The old Chippenham seat was held by cabinet minister Michelle Donela, but she is standing in the new seat of Melksham & Devizes.

In the redrawn seat the polling company’s figure suggest a Conservative vote share of 37.3 per cent up against projected 36.3 per cent for the Liberal Democrats.

Labour are projected 15 per cent, Reform UK  7.7 per cent and the Greens 1.7 per cent.

Whereas in most constituencies the vote share for independent candidates and for parties other than the main five is largely irrelevant, the 1.4 per cent More in Common are projecting for the independent standing this year is more than twice the ‘winning’ margin in the prediction for Chippenham

Former Chippenham MP Michelle Donelan will be relieved that her choice to stand in Melksham & Devizes is projected to see her returned to parliament much more comfortably than if she’d stood in her old constituency.

The polling company projects her to hold the seat by 12 percentage points - 39.6 per cent over the Liberal Democrats 37 per cent, with Labour on 20 per cent, Reform on 9.8 per cent and the Greens on 2.8 per cent.

Further south in the county, Andrew Murrison is predicted to hold South West Wiltshire for the Conservatives.

His calculated vote share of 37.9 per cent gives him an eight per cent lead over Labour on 30 per cent, the Liberal Democrats with 17.2 per cent, Reform on 10.7 per cent and the Green on 2.9 per cent.

The enormous East Wiltshire constituency which runs from southern Swindon to the edges of Salisbury should see a large swathe of the map coloured blue, and MP Danny Kruger returned to parliament according to More in Common.

Mr Kruger is projected to gain 40.9 per cent of the vote, the largest vote share of any Conservative in the county in this poll, that’s 10 points over Labour’s 30.9 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 22.1 per cent, Reform on 12.4 per cent and the Greens on 3.2 per cent.

Salisbury is projected to return Conservative MP John Glen. He is ‘given’ 36.2 per cent of the vote with Labour on 27.5 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 20.9 per cent, Reform on 9.6 per cent and the Greens on 3.9 per cent.

South Cotswolds, a new constituency combining the southern half of the old Cotswold constituency in Gloucestershire and the norther part of North Wiltshire is projected to be taken by the Liberal Democrats.

That would see Conservative MP James Gray defeated if it comes to pass.

The polling company projects his vote to be at 34.5 per cent, 10 points behind that of the Lib Dem candidate at 45.2 per cent. Labour are on 10.9 per cent, Reform on 6.2 per cent and the Greens on 1.9 per cent.

Both Swindon North and Swindon South are projected in the poll to be won by Labour taking the seats from the Conservatives.

Tactical voting could make a huge difference in a number of constituencies if the poll is accurate.

Most obviously is the hugely tight marginal seat of Chippenham. With a projected win for the Conservatives of just 0.4 per cent over the Lib Dems, any switch to the Lib Dems from Labour or Green or even independent voters could swing the result.

Conversely, if Reform voters switch to the Conservatives, it could shore up the Tories’ winning vote share.

If Green, Liberal Democrat or Labour voters in four other constituencies - Melksham & Devizes, South West Wiltshire, Salisbury, and East Wiltshire combine votes, it could make things tighter in the seats projected to be held by the Conservatives.

But equally, switches to the Conservatives by Reform voters could see the Tories home even against the tactically combined votes of Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters.

In Swindon North a combination of Conservative and Reform vote share would make the race very tight, and according to More in Common, Labour would need some switching from the Lib Dems or Greens to see off such a challenge.

Tactical voting seems unlikely to affect the race in South Cotswolds according to the figures put out by More in Common. 

While anything is yet possible, the most likely tactical vote of Reform and Conservative voters doesn’t beat the projected Liberal Democrat vote share even without any switching to the Lib Dems by Labour or Green voters.

And the 53.7 per cent vote share projected for Labour in Swindon South is impervious to any combination of tactical vote switching from other parties.